Global Economic Devastation

I'm going to show you a clip here in a second on today's episode of the Pivot Podcast with Scott Galloway and Kara Swisher. Scott Galloway gives his prediction of what the global financial, economic, chain reaction is going to be from the war that we started with Iran in the fact that the straight of hormones is closed and everything else that goes along with that. I was talking to my therapist about this today, I'm scared death about what comes next where this goes globally, it is going to wreak complete economic havoc and destruction across the United States. People who two weeks ago were paying $2.30 a gallon for gas are going to be paying $5 a gallon for gas and they're spending impacts from that are going to reverberate in a way that we don't understand right now but it is all going to be absolutely horrific. Watch this clip. I think we're on the precipice of like a $10 trillion wipe out. Wow. Really? Tell all. I get this wrong all the time this is not financial advice but I don't think it's from Iran, it's from what comes after Iran. This is the chain reaction here. I think oil is not going to be at 150 bucks but it's going to be elevated through the rest of the year and inflation in some markets reignites. I think corporate earnings are really impaired is consumer stop spending because some of them will be paying $5 a gallon for gas and the 401k will start to decline and Q2 earning season becomes bad and then what CEOs do when things are sort of bad is they throw in the kitchen sink and they'll make it look like a blood bath just to get all the bad shit out. But the real contagion here is going to be from emerging markets. I think there's a decent chance that Pakistan and Egypt default and as well as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh dollar denominated debt, very energy dependent, very fragile economies. There's this domino effect in those markets because they can't afford oil imports and their dollar denominated debt just becomes unpayable. And then the real downward spiral starts, European banks holding that emerging market debt start announcing right downs. Foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BMP, Paribas, all hugely exposed credit spreads blow out and we get sort of an '08 style which bank is next moment except this time it's happening while the U.S. is fighting a war we started for no reason. By August the narrative shifts from transitory war shock to holy shit. We may have broken the global financial system. The S&P is off 20% to 40% from its peak Bitcoin goes to like 30,000 and quite frankly the only thing that probably goes up is canned goods and ammunition. Well that's a scenario. The prediction is finally the contagion is going to start in emerging markets that can't afford oil and their debt is dollar denominated. That's just a toxic cocktail.