How is nobody talking about this
@caspersmc_Transcript
If history repeats itself, this will be a stock market crash, and no one realizes it. Tomorrow, SpaceX lists at 1.77 trillion. And Fidelity just cut their minimum investment for retail traders from 500,000 to 2000. Robinhood, SoFi, and the others have no minimum. Now look, I've been in the markets for a decade, and I've never seen this happen before, so I've spent hours studying all past IPOs, and here is what almost always happens next. First, you gotta understand why this is happening. For decades, Wall Street locks out retail traders of all these major IPOs, but this time it's different. Now, a normal IPO will hand 5 to 10% to retail in terms of the shares that it distributes. SpaceX reserve 30%, which is over triple to standard, and that is not them being generous. Remember, someone has to be the buyer of these. But here is the part that is buried in the fine print. They're going to sell you to buy at 135. They will not let you sell, because if you sell your SpaceX shares in the first 15 days on Fidelity, you are flagged to flipper, and you get a six month ban, and then a year, and then permanent, and this is tied to your social security number. Robinhood locks you for 30. So notice what's happening here. They're dropping every barrier to get you in, and then they're bolting the door shut behind you. You do not build a one-way door, unless you already know which way the crowd has to run. But here is what they know that you don't. An IPO is not the start of the run. Okay, it is the exit. The people who have been insiders, the employees, the early backers are going to turn all of this paper they have into cash. Remember, somebody is going to have to sit on the other side of those trades. And this week, they are building those someone out of millions of $2,000 accounts. And if history repeats, it shows us the ending every single time. True is studied at 30 major tech IPOs over 15 years. Everyone had serious drawdown in year one, which was a median of 54% drawdown. Now, only 43% of these IPOs were even green after another year. The names you remember are probably Facebook, which went negative 54%. Snapchat, which went negative 56% Uber, negative 68%. Now, let's press in SpaceX into this history. 1.77 trillion, 94 times their sales, a 4.9 billion loss last year. And the doors are opening to the smallest account in the markets. And the exit is locked for 15 days. Like, that is not insider access. That is distribution at the top. We have seen this time and time before. The 2000 dot com crash. Insiders got rich. Retail got wrecked. 2021 SPAC. Insiders got rich. Retail got wrecked. And nobody is just going to give you the front of the line for free. So you have two choices in the next 24 hours. Buy the most expensive listing in market history at the open. And pray that you're exception to a 54% median drawdown. Or maybe you get rich on it. But almost nobody knows. So the best way to handle this is just to sit on the sidelines and wait. Trust me, you're not going to miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime by doing that. And most of the mistakes that you make that will make you a poor investor come from FOMO.
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