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@39manz003Transcript
So today I want to discuss something that I think is very important, and once you understand this, everything that is happening right now, the war in Iran, the dollar weakening, the political chaos in America, all of it will make complete sense to you, because it is not random, it is a pattern, a pattern that has repeated itself across 3,000 years of human history, and right now, America is following that pattern almost perfectly. Okay, so let me introduce you to a historian named Sir John Glob. Now most people have never heard of Sir John Glob, he is not very famous, but I think he is one of the most important historians of the 20th century. He was a British general and scholar who spent his entire career studying empires. Not one empire, not two, all of the great empires in history, the Assyrians, the Persians, the Greeks, the Romans, the Arabs, the Mongols, the Ottomans, the Spanish, the British, and after studying all of these empires, he published a short book called The Fate of Empires. And in that book, he made one of the most remarkable observations in all of historical scholarship. He said, "All empires, without exception, go through the same stages, the same sequence, every single time, and the average lifespan of a great empire is 250 years." Now, I want you to hold that number in your head, 250 years. America is 249 years old, okay? So let's go through the stages, because once you understand the stages, you will understand exactly where America is right now, and why what is happening was always going to happen. Stage one is what Glob calls the age of conquest. Every empire begins the same way. It is lean, it is hungry, it is disciplined, it has raw energy, and it expands through military and economic superiority. At this stage, there is no corruption, because there is no wealth yet to be corrupt. There is no complacency, because there is no comfort yet to be complacent about. The soldiers are motivated, the leadership is focused, the purpose is clear. For America, this is the period from roughly 1776 through World War II. America fights a revolution against the greatest empire in the world, and wins. It expands across a continent. It develops the largest industrial economy ever seen, and then in World War II, it does something unprecedented in all of history. It fights on two fronts simultaneously, across both the Atlantic and the Pacific, against two major powers, and defeats both of them. Think about what that required. Think about what that took. 18-year-old boys landing on Normandy Beach knowing most of them would be killed. Soldiers fighting in jungles in the Pacific with diseases they had never encountered. Factories running 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Women leaving their homes to build ships and aircraft. That is what stage 1 looks like. Sacrifice, focus, hunger, discipline, and when it was over, America did not just win the war. It rebuilt its enemies. The Marshall Plan, Bretton Woods. The dollar becomes the world's reserve currency. 800 military bases built around the world. America, at the peak of stage 1, was genuinely the most powerful civilization in the history of humanity. Stage 2 is what Glob calls the age of commerce. Once military dominance is established, it converts into economic dominance. The empire controls trade routes. Wealth flows toward the center. The standard of living rises. The middle class expands. And for a brief period, a golden period, the empire is simultaneously the most powerful and the most prosperous society in the world. For America, this is the 1950s and 1960s. The American middle class during this period was the strongest middle class in the history of human civilization. Workers in factories could afford houses, cars, vacations, college for their children, on a single salary. The dollar was backed by gold. American manufacturing produced more than any country in history. American universities were the best in the world. American science put men on the moon. This is stage 2. And it feels like it will last forever. But it never does. Stage 3 is what Glob calls the age of affluence. And this is where it begins to go wrong. Because wealth creates comfort. And comfort creates complacency. And complacency creates a very specific kind of thinking. The thinking that says, we have always been dominant. Therefore, we will always be dominant. We do not need to sacrifice anymore. We do not need to be disciplined anymore. We already won. And here is where the military industrial complex enters the picture. I've talked about this before. After World War II, America kept its war machine running. Eisenhower, a general himself, warned about this when he left office in 1961. He said, and I want you to remember these words, he said, beware the military industrial complex. He was warning that a permanent military establishment, combined with a large arms industry, would acquire undue influence in the American government. And that influence would distort priorities. Instead of the military serving America's strategic interests, America's strategic interests would begin to serve the military. That is exactly what happened. Vietnam was the first clear sign. America spent over $800 billion in today's dollars fighting Vietnam. It lost 58,000 soldiers. And it accomplished nothing. It left. And Vietnam became communist anyway. And there was no accountability. No one asked, Why did we spend this money and achieve more?
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