This might be the hardest video I’ve made to date, despite the fact that I didn’t have to draw anything more complicated than a few boxes. 

In order to keep this under 3 minutes, I had to oversimplify A TON. I can’t caveat everything. But the bottom line is, if you want to put the key man risk of Jensen Huang — and the key company risk of NVIDIA — in context, you need to understand just how deeply they are invested across EVERYONE in the AI ecosystem. And while you’ll notice that there’s no real direct investment in the hyperscalers shown here, don’t be fooled. The frontier labs in whom NVIDIA has a massive investment are the ones renting compute and cloud space from the MSFTs, AMZNs, and GOOGs, of the world…not to mention the fact that investments like Marvell indirectly constitute an investment in their competitors’ custom chips. And despite their massive investment in OpenAI and other closed weight frontier model companies, they are deeply invested in the open weight models as well. Case in point? NOT PICTURED: their outright purchase of HuggingFace, which will show up in Q3. They bought the whole company at the nexus of the open weight world.

These guys aren’t out there picking winners like the rest of us dummies. They’re invested in anything and everything that touches AI.

Nvidia is in bed with all its customers, not just the ones who are alleged Chinese spies. I set out to trace $1 of Nvidia's sales through their investments in the entire AI ecosystem, from NeoClouds to Frontier Models and Beyond, and you'll never believe what I figured out. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang describes the AI ecosystem as a five-layer cake, Nvidia sales chips, so it lives in layer two, right? Well, let's take $1 from Nvidia's chip sales in the first six months of 2026. Hyperscalers like Google and Meta and the Frontier labs who run from them account for more than half. Customers and video calls ACIE, basically everyone who isn't a hyperscaler, like the NeoClouds, make up the rest. It's original gaming and PC business only bring in a sad eight cents. Now click financial model. From a dollar, take out 34 cents of costs, add back 13 cents of paper gains on its investments, minus 13 cents in taxes, and Nvidia reports 66 cents of profit. Strip out those paper gains and make working capital adjustments and 42 cents is their cash from operations. Nvidia borrowed 14 cents, sold seven cents of securities, and now has 63 cents of new cash to play with. From the original dollar, Nvidia keeps her spends 13 cents on itself. 26 goes to shareholders, and 24 cents gets invested into the AI ecosystem. Coming into 2026, Nvidia already had 22 cents invested on our scale. Mostly Frontier labs like Anthropic and XAI. Then companies on its supply chain like Intel, which makes the CPUs its GPUs they're paired with. Honorable mention to the NeoClouds, Apps, and Robotics. Now let's add our new 24 cents. The vast majority of which went to $130 billion investment into open AI. The rest went to the Optics suppliers that connect GPUs, Marvel, who makes A6 for some of its competitors, and the remainder to NeoClouds like CoreWeave and Nebius. By July, adding intense sense of appreciation, Nvidia had 56 cents invested. More than half is Frontier Labs, and over half of that is OpenAI. But they own a piece of all models, Open Weight, or Closed. Then our parts and tools, where 70% of their investment is in Intel, and the NeoClouds, where CoreWeave is half their exposure. The rest is a rounding error. But that's not all. Nvidia has also promised credit and equity support worth $1.23 on our scale. More than twice what it's already invested. 66 cents is in Frontier Labs, 89% of which is $105 billion credit guarantee backing OpenAI's 9.2 gigawatt half a trillion dollar Ohio data center. The rest is mostly the NeoClouds, capacity backstops, credit support, and equity checks into the vehicles that lend to them. But wait, in August, Blackstone, Goldman, BlackRock, Apollo, KKR, and Brookfield, along with Nvidia, agreed to finance more than $500 billion of future AI buildout, with Nvidia offering up to 25% residual support on the chips inside the deals. That's another 70 cents of potential investment on our scale. So for every $1 sales in the door, $1.79 is invested or promised, and up to $2.49 is on the hook. Compared to Lehman at 32-to-1 gross leverage, I think we're okay. What's more interesting is this chipmaker actually looks more like a venture capital or hedge fund invested across the whole stack, models, infrastructure, and apps. The only layer it's missing is energy, and I guarantee we'll see that in Q3 filings.